Surrogation: When Metrics Become Substitutes for the Real Thing
Net Promoter Score (NPS) is a great proxy metric but isn’t a surrogate for all that encompasses customer loyalty. Revenue is a great proxy metric but isn’t a surrogate for all of marketing. It’s like saying a street map is the equivalent of a city. You can forget that there is so much more to pay attention to.
Management guru, Peter Drucker said, “What is measured, improves.” He was mostly right. Measurement keeps marketing teams focused on important outcomes. However, even if you select the right metrics, a wrong application can lead to problematic behavior and disappointing results.
Even the best metrics can drive negative consequences. Surrogation is the term for when people become so focused on improving the metric that they lose sight of the nuanced complexity of the “real thing”. A proxy metric is like a map. There are many kinds of maps, each reveals something important. Depending on your objective, you may find a street map, a topographical map, or a climate map to be the most valuable guide. However, none represent the true richness of the living landscape.
When handed a performance metric, people will adapt their behavior if they are able. That’s the intent! Behavior modification drives improvement. Leaders institute metrics expecting employees will pivot towards actions that result in better outcomes. Implicit in a proxy metric is the notion that employees will take into account that the metric is merely a representation and that they will keep the broader “real thing” in mind.
However, it is possible that people won’t see the full landscape and will surrogate instead – either intentionally or inadvertently. They can single-mindedly pursue the metric without regard for adverse effects. A recent example of surrogation is the Wells Fargo fraudulent account scandal. Pressured by management to cross-sell services, employees created millions of fake accounts without clients’ knowledge or permission. Surrogation caused Wells Fargo $3 Billion in penalties and a hit to their reputation.
Most problematic behavior resulting from surrogation is less nefarious but can still be damaging. Lead volume is intended to be a marker of good demand generation. However, if marketers surrogate that metric, they will clog pipelines with thousands, maybe tens of thousands of worthless names. With those results, marketers may stand tall in their quarterly business reviews, but salespeople will miss their numbers. Moving marketing’s line-of-sight closer to business goals by measuring sales-accepted leads or revenue is a useful improvement. However, it’s not a panacea. If revenue becomes a surrogate for effective marketing, then marketing’s broader role will be lost. Marketing becomes nothing more than an extension of sales - to the company’s detriment.
Marketers are not the only employees who can become blinded by surrogation. Sales leaders know the weeks following a quota adjustment often fills with negotiations if salespeople think they can get a bigger payoff by attempting a quota reduction than by trying to get new business. CEOs have been known to drive a good company into the ground by gaming the stock market’s earnings-per-share expectations. Even vaulted customer experience metrics can be surrogated. Customer loyalty surveys may return high NPS scores. However, if few customers complete the survey, unmeasured customer turnover could be at an all-time high.
To reduce surrogation, leaders must cultivate their teams’ appreciation for the complexity and richness of the proxy metric’s intent.
Use multiple metrics, preferably metrics that conflict with each other. In his excellent book, “When More is Not Better: Overcoming America’s Obsession with Economic Efficiency”, Professor Emeritus at the University of Toronto, Roger L. Martin, argues that multiple, seemingly contradictory, metrics defend against surrogation. The dynamic tension forces managers to consider the systemic, integrated, nature of business. Southwest Airlines aims to be the lowest cost airline in America and also #1 in customer satisfaction, employee satisfaction, and profits. Marketing leaders should select 3-5 outcome-oriented metrics that require managers to accommodate multiple dimensions of marketing. In addition to revenue, leaders should include metrics for customer/constituent loyalty (e.g., satisfaction, life-time value, attrition, promotion). Internal metrics such as employee experience and cost control add other angles.
Provide context. “As leaders, it’s our job to educate on what the numbers really mean. Metrics are incomplete indicators of what they aim to measure. Leaders need to set the tone, then coach teams towards successful achievement”, advises Christine Bottagaro, Chief Revenue Officer at Resurface Labs. Illustrative stories and examples paint a more nuanced picture of the intended result. The right culture takes time to build but will support decisions under ambiguous circumstances. In the case of Wells Fargo, prosecutors found company culture, as well as the metric itself, contributed to abuse. If problematic behavior arises, leaders need the wisdom to understand contributing factors and the ability to have tough conversations if required.
Continually tweak. Marketing is complex – more like weather than a machine. The market’s uncertainty and volatility arise from the interactions of many independent agents – customers, competitors, partners, social networks, regulatory agencies. To adapt to constant change, all metrics, no matter how well-planned, need to be monitored and regularly tweaked. It’s not a good practice to make frequent radical changes to important metrics. However, regular adjustment to accommodate change contributes to resilience and agility.
To build on Peter Drucker’s comment, “What is measured RIGHT, improves.” Safeguard against surrogation and this sage advice will come true for your organization.